Thursday night games cometh! Meanwhile, my lousy bunch of deadbeat friends great staff and I will be plugging away to get everything done early. So for the three of you reading, forgive me if it’s a little short this week. Your mom did.
We’ve had an adequate amount of games by now, so I’d like to take this time to show you some eye-opening reminders of how unpredictable fantasy football is. Here are some rankings of fantasy points per game by position.
"Hey, should we go work on some rankings or write some articles or something? Nah...let's just sit here and think about eating seals and Eskimos and stuff."
QB (minimum 5 starts)
1. Aaron Rodgers, GNB–33.29
2. Cam Newton, CAR–26.05
3. Tom Brady, NWE–24.86
4. Drew Brees, NOR–24.55
5. Matthew Stafford, DET–24.18
6. Eli Manning, NYG–20.83
7. Michael Vick, PHI–20.32
8. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT–19.11
9. Tony Romo, DAL–18.48
10. Ryan Fitzpatrick, BUF–18.41
11. Matt Schaub, HOU–17.33
12. Matt Hasselbeck, TEN–17.28
Notice anything strange? Usually the separation between the upper tier guys and the lower tier guys is a little smaller. But really, this isn’t far from par for the course. If you lucked into Newton, Stafford, Manning, Fitzpatrick or Hasselbeck you didn’t have to pay for a top-12, starting-caliber QB. If you didn’t, you probably did pay, and you’re being rewarded for it. Only Philip Rivers fails to crack the top-12 after having been drafted in the top 12. Also, had Tim Tebow made my five-start minimum requirement he would have checked in at #8 with 23.09 ppg (if we’re giving him three starts). Little food for thought for all you Tebow haters. As long as you aren’t just die-hard in love with a certain elite QB, the evidence still indicates you should wait to draft one. Three of the top-5 per game scorers could be had in the mid-to-late rounds, or in Newton’s case, off of waivers. But the strategy of drafting one for safety reasons still makes sense, given the relative predictability of the top scorers (minus Rivers). So the answer is…do what you want.
RB (minimum five games played)
1. LeSean McCoy, PHI–24.51
2. Fred Jackson, BUF–23.33
3. Ray Rice, BAL–23.05
4. Arian Foster, HOU–22.97
5. Matt Forte, CHI–22.41
6. Adrian Peterson, MIN–20.74
7. Jahvid Best, DET–18.78
8. Ryan Mathews, SDG–18.66
9. Darren Sproles, NOR–18.37
10. Darren McFadden, OAK–17.67
11. Ahmad Bradshaw, NYG–17.49
12. Mike Tolbert, SDG–17.45
13. Steven Jackson, STL–16.23
14. Michael Turner, ATL–16.16
15. Frank Gore, SFO–15.36
16. Beanie Wells, ARI–14.77
17. Willis McGahee, DEN–14.20
18. Maurice Jones-Drew, JAC–14.01
19. LeGarrette Blount, TAM-11.77
20. Marshawn Lynch, SEA–11.69
21. Reggie Bush, MIA–11.67
22. Chris Johnson, TEN–11.66
23. Jonathan Stewart, CAR–11.54
24. Pierre Thomas, NOR–10.85
24 (t). Brandon Jacobs, NYG–10.85
Before Sunday's game, Lynch was averaging 8.5 fppg and hadn't rushed for over 100 in 36 straight regular season games. Don't get excited.
25. Shonn Greene, NYJ–10.84
26. Felix Jones, DAL–10.80
27. Rashard Mendenhall, PIT–10.65
28. Cedric Benson, CIN–10.50
29. Benjarvus Green-Ellis–10.46
30. Michael Bush, OAK–10.36
So if you’re in a 12-team league that starts two RBs and one flex, hopefully you have three of these guys (or if not, two of the top 20 and a pretty good set of WRs). There are plenty of surprises on this list, as usual, and the standard deviation from top to bottom, even if you only look at the top-12, is not close to that of the QBs, but remember, very few leagues only start one RB. So you need to look at your 24th RBs’ fppg output vs. your top RB’s to see the true deviation. Then you really start to understand how valuable RB is. But I’ve said this before. If you were taking notes, you probably already know this information. So let’s instead make fun of the people who drafted Chris Johnson, Rashard Mendenhall and Shonn Greene. Ha! Laugh at them! Oh yeah, did I mention these are PPR ranks? It makes a huge difference. Cedric Benson’s 75 yard, zero-catch game looks a lot worse when you look at it through a PPR lens. What’s worse, all of his games look like that. That’s why you should discount him, and guys like him, on draft day. And that’s why we bump guys like Darren Sproles up in our weekly rankings.
WR
1. Wes Welker, NWE–26.02
2. Calvin Johnson, DET–24.35
3. Steve Smith, CAR–20.31
4. Greg Jennings, GNB–19.84
5. Mike Wallace, PIT–18.93
6. Vincent Jackson, SDG–16.77
7. A.J. Green, CIN–16.17
Pictured: The Real Deal.
8. Dwayne Bowe, KAN–16.13
9. Hakeem Nicks, NYG–16.01
10. Brandon Marshall, MIA–15.65
10 (t). Jeremy Maclin, PHI–15.65
11. Miles Austin, DAL–15.59
12. Julio Jones, ATL–15.33
13. Larry Fitzgerald, ARI–15.28
14. Eric Decker, DEN–15.19
15. Steve Johnson, BUF–14.84
16. Anquan Boldin, BAL–14.74
17. Victor Cruz, NYG–14.49
18. Jordy Nelson, GNB–14.33
19. Torrey Smith, BAL–14.29
20. Roddy White, ATL–14.06
21. Marques Colston, NOR–13.9
22. Dez Bryant, DAL–13.7
23. Pierre Garcon, IND–13.16
24. Deion Branch, NWE–13.09
25. Sidney Rice, SEA–12.95
26. Darrius Heyward-Bey, OAK–12.93
27. Nate Washington, TEN–12.7
27 (t). Brandon Lloyd, STL–12.7
28. Early Doucet, ARI–12.16
29. Plaxico Burress, NYJ–12.1
30. Doug Baldwin, SEA–11.97
Andre Johnson would’ve been 9th, and along with him this list is full of usual suspects. If your league starts three WRs and a flex, you should have 2-3 of these guys on your team. Notice some disappointing names on the list, like Roddy White, DeSean Jackson and Larry Fitzgerald. Those three were all drafted as WR1s. White was typically the third or fourth WR off the board, Fitzgerald closely followed and Jackson was being taken as early as the 10th receiver. With trade deadlines coming up in the next few weeks in many leagues, now’s the time to roll the dice on any of these guys, or even on an injured guy like Miles Austin, if you can afford to wait a few weeks. The thing with any of those WRs I mentioned (and you can throw Mike Williams in this group) is that nothing has really changed to negatively affect any of their situations. Williams seems to have inexplicably gotten slower, and obviously Julio Jones is stealing some targets from White. But if your WRs are crap, and/or you have some superfluous depth to offer up in a trade, and can get any of them for a sub-top-30 W/R player, pull the trigger.
TE
1. Jimmy Graham, NOR–18.49
2. Rob Gronkowski, NWE–17.82
3. Aaron Hernandez, NWE–15.48
4. Jason Witten, DAL–15.35
5. Fred Davis, WAS–13.79
6. Tony Gonzalez, ATL–13.7
7. Jermichael Finley, GNB–12.13
8. Greg Olsen, CAR–11.49
9. Brandon Pettigrew, DET–11.4
10. Jermaine Gresham, CIN–11.05
11. Dustin Keller, NYJ–10.65
12. Owen Daniels, HOU–10.57
There are four other guys between Daniels and a 9.99. If you don’t have one, you’re simply not paying attention. Antonio Gates would have been third on this list, but he’s only made it to four games. That should tell you about how little it matters that he was injured-when he’s playing he’s great. It’s time to admit that Fred Davis is an elite TE. It’s also time to admit that Jermichael Finley may not be when finally forced to play the majority of a season. The bottom line is, while great tight ends are nice to have, they’re so rarely that much better than the field (Graham is an obvious freakish exception, and even he has come back down to Earth a tad) that you still shouldn’t draft one high or trade for one, unless you just come across a great value somewhere. Guys like Olsen, Pettigrew, Gresham and Davis are fine for your champion-caliber team because you didn’t have to give up much to get them, and the rest of your roster is likely loaded.
Injury News
* Miles Austin has a hamstring injury. The slogan for 2011 ought to be “___________ has a hamstring injury.” He is expected to miss 2-4 weeks. Two words: Laurent Robinson. More on him later.
* Dallas Clark has a lower leg injury. I’m guessing it’s somehow related to his fibula and is perhaps a break or minor fracture of some kind. How do I know this? Well, I was sitting in front of his wife at the game and she commented that her phone’s predictive text failed to spell “fibula” correctly. I have no link. Call it speculation. BTW, Pandamonium tweeted this during the game but gave credit to fake LukeNukem (I’m @LukeNukem317).
* Frank Gore has what appears to be a minor ankle sprain. He played on it, but it was bad enough that he had to get X-rays today. According to Jim Harbaugh, “X-Rays were good,” and according to Gore, it’s “nothing to worry about.” Luckily it’s not the same ankle he injured earlier in the season. Because of that injury he was forced into a bench role, and consequently that was the game that started his now legendary 5-game (and counting) 100-yard streak. If he misses time Kendall Hunter is the add, but he dislocated a finger or something on Sunday. To be honest, both look like they’re going to be good to go for the steamrolling ‘Niners for this weekend.
* Jahvid Best and Peyton Hillis will remain inactive week 10. There have been rumblings about both to IR, but for the time being you should stash them.
Guys to Keep an Eye on
* Laurent Robinson, WR DAL (14%): I’ve never been a huge Robinson fan. He’s always struck me as one of those high upside guys who never justified the sleeper hype. But now he really has a chance to shine with Miles Austin out for 2-4 weeks. Robinson has now caught 21 passes since Austin’s week 4 injury, has topped 100 receiving yards twice in that span and is on a two-game TD streak. Now he gets BUF, ARI and TAM in three of his next six games. He’s a must-add if you’re weak at receiver.
* Roy Helu, RB WAS (32%): I’ve mentioned Helu in this space before. Don’t get comfortable. Mike Shanahan will eventually screw you. But the 14 catches were eye-opening. Helu may carve himself out a niche as a dumpoff factory for the ‘Skins horrific passing offense.
* Ben Tate, RB HOU (57%): Tate has even been useful when Foster’s been on the field, rushing for 100+ yards in two of his last three games. His TDs and receptions will be sporadic, but he’s currently on pace for almost 1100+ rushing yards, which is probably more than you can say for one or more of the RBs currently on your bench. He should be unanimously owned at this point.
* Jacob Tamme, TE IND (1%): It’s hard to forget Tamme’s streak of relevance last season as Dallas Clark’s fill-in. Now he’ll get a chance to replace Clark again, and maybe for the rest of the season, knowing Clark’s injury history. I wouldn’t bank on Tamme for much relevance, as he is tied to the worst team in all of sports, but if you’re in a very, very deep league, he could be a fill-in to consider at TE.
* Jay Cutler, QB CHI (62%): Cutler isn’t anything special, as he’s proven time and again since being traded to Chicago. But this year he’s finally showing some maturity, and now has a great schedule coming up heading into the fantasy playoffs, including a 5-game stretch starting in week 12 (@ OAK, vs. KAN, @ DEN, vs. SEA, @ GNB).
My Fantasy World
Accumulative Record (three pay leagues): 12-15
I went the dreaded 0-3 in my pay leagues this week. I don’t want to talk about it. On to the next one.
And that is why I was trying to trade away Best…blargo!