Monthly Mock Manifesto (June)-by LukeNukem

Fantasy football research is time consuming.

I’ve spent less time writing college research papers.

I’ve spent less time researching cars, and even houses, I’ve ended up buying.

Hell, I spent less time deciding whether or not I wanted to get married and have kids.

And I’m just talking about the research I’ve done this week.

I don’t know why fantasy football is so popular. I don’t know why we’re all so obsessed with it. For some of us (myself included), I’m guessing it has something to do with our innate desire to be right. For others, it serves as a chance to harken back to our glory days as high school, or even more pathetic, middle school, athletes. Some of the sappiest among us use fantasy football leagues as part of a grand social endeavor to “stay connected” with our friends. Those of us who haven’t had sex in a while use it as an excuse for not having had sex in a while. Some play just because they hate their real lives. Some play strictly for the money. Whatever your reason, and whatever you tell yourself, there’s one aspect of the fantasy football phenomenon that’s more important, more engaging, more addictive and more time-consuming than any other: the draft (and its related research).

If you haven’t been following along, I’ve gotten the ball rolling for summer draft research at TFN. Here’s a quick refresher about the project I’ve undertaken:

Last week I participated in 10 mock drafts using five different strategies, and for each strategy I drafted assuming one 12-team league, and one 10-team league. I used CBS’s mock draft interactive software, and in most cases drafted against fellow fantasy degenerates, but in many cases had to rely on “autopilot” opposing teams, which are basically mock drafting robots who select players based on the CBS expert rankings. In the following analysis, I’ll tell you how each of my mocks went, and tell you how The Football Guys (excellent analysts that they are) thought my teams ended up. You can rate any team you draft at The Football Guys’ exceptional, meticulously-designed Web site. You should consider their “Rate my Team” tool as one of this summer’s go-to time-wasters. If you’ve never played fantasy football before, I’d recommend their site over any other (even this one, sad to say).

In two mocks I drafted strictly by a “BPA” (Best Player Available) strategy. I took the highest players remaining on my rankings list, regardless of their position. This was to ensure that I ended up with value at every position, and is a strategy that I typically default to.

In two mocks I drafted to fill my roster. This means that if a roster required that I start 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 QB and 1 TE, I made sure to draft those positions first, and worry about depth and value later. I think this strategy is a common mistake among fantasy footballers because it, by definition, decreases your team’s ability to accumulate value at positions where it’s scarce (such as backup RB). But we shall see what The Football Guys thought.

In two mocks I drafted my QB first, followed by consecutive WRs or WR then an RB in that order. This is an unconventional method often employed by people who don’t really know much about fantasy football. Because there is a less significant value difference between the top and bottom QBs than there is among the top and bottom ranges at other positions, and that typically you only have to start one QB (as opposed to multiples at the other “skill” positions), the philosophy can easily lead to some pretty devastating value sacrifices. It’s conventional wisdom among experts to avoid taking QBs early, and if you’ve won your league in the past by taking one early and avoiding RBs until the 4th round or later, then you probably didn’t win by doing it two years in a row (unless you’re in a keeper league and you lucked out with a rookie RB who turned into a stud). For more reading check out this article.

In two mocks I drafted WRs back-to-back. If you read my draft rules from the overview article, you’d know that I won’t ignore my top RBs for any other position, no matter the circumstance. So for the QB-first and WR-first experiments, I chose my draft position where I wouldn’t have to pass up on any top-5 RB talent. Needless to say, after I drafted two straight WRs, I was looking for steals at RB to make up for the value I lost by ignoring RB early.

Finally, in two mocks, I drafted as I normally would, and how many experts tell you to. I went RB-RB, then took the best available WR or RB after that, and waited until very late to draft a QB who I considered undervalued, or a tandem of QBs who I felt would be interchangeable given their matchups.

Here’s what I ended up with (remember your rules…these are assumed PPR leagues where kickers and defense don’t matter, and don’t forget to use those great links):

Table of Contents

Best Player Available 12-Team League Best Player Available 10-Team League
Roster Fill 12-Team Roster Fill 10-Team
QB-WR-W/R 12-Team QB-WR-W/R 10-Team
WR-WR 12-Team WR-WR 10-Team
RB-RB 12-Team RB-RB 10-Team

Results, Analysis, and Conclusions

Mock #1

Strategy: “BPA”

Number of Teams: 12

Draft Position: 5th

Number of full-time autopilots: 0

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 0 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Frank Gore (5th overall pick)

2nd Round—Peyton Manning (20th)

3rd Round—Knowshon Moreno (29th)

4th Round—Steve Smith-Carolina (44th)

5th Round—Donald Driver (53rd)

6th Round—Cadillac Williams (68th)

7th Round—Austin Collie (77th)

8th Round—T.J. Houshmandzadeh (92nd)

9th Round—Ahmad Bradshaw (101st)

10th Round—Kevin Walter (116th)

11th Round—John Carlson (125th)

12th Round—Anthony Gonzalez (140th)

The Football Guys Analysis: The Football Guys hated this team. They gave me between a 19-55% chance of making the playoffs. Naturally, they didn’t like the idea of Carolina Smith (or as Chairman Mao calls him, a “poor man’s Steve Smith” to the Giants’ “Real Steve Smith”) as my #1 receiver. In hindsight I don’t either. I felt Manning was the BPA in the second round, but I gave up a lot of opportunity to get him. I could’ve taken Reggie Wayne instead, then someone like Matt Ryan or Kevin Kolb in the 7th or 8th round and my team would’ve been more balanced.

Back to top

Mock #2

Strategy: “BPA”

Number of Teams: 10

Draft Position: 1st

Number of full-time autopilots: 0

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Chris Johnson (1)

2nd—Matt Schaub (20)

3rd—Roddy White (21)

4th—Pierre Thomas (40)

5th—Steve Smith-Carolina (41)

6th—Ahmad Bradshaw (60)

7th—Reggie Bush (61)

8th—Clinton Portis (80)

9th—Dwayne Bowe (81)

10th—Joe Flacco (100)

11th—Steve Breaston (101)

12th—Kellen Winslow (120)

The Football Guys Analysis: This was the team they seemed to like the most of the 10 I drafted. They gave me between a 78-90% chance of making the playoffs, and saw no real weaknesses. This is undoubtedly because I landed Chris Johnson, who really counts as two RBs. The 22+ fantasy points per game he’ll likely net allowed me to wait until round 4 to go after my RB 2. But if you look at where I ended up taking Ahmad Bradshaw, you’ll notice I actually kind of reached on him, getting him 41 picks earlier than I did in mock #1. A lot of it probably has to do with how the rest of the league was drafting, but I liked Bradshaw enough to take him 60th in the first mock, I just didn’t have to.

Back to top

Mock #3

Strategy: Roster Filling

Number of Teams: 12

Draft Position: 9th

Number of full-time autopilots: 0

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Frank Gore (9th)

2nd Round—Reggie Wayne (16)

3rd Round—Joseph Addai (33)

4th Round—Steve Smith-Carolina (40)

5th Round—Jason Witten (57)

6th Round—Matt Forte (64)

7th Round—Donovan McNabb (81)

8th Round—C.J. Spiller (88)

9th Round—Steve Breaston (105)

10th Round—Donald Brown (112)

11th Round—Anthony Gonzalez (129)

12th Round—Matthew Stafford (136)

The Football Guys Analysis: They weren’t bullish on this team, giving it between a 34-70% chance of making the playoffs. I cost myself some value by trying to fill my roster with the 7th round McNabb pick. I could’ve had T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Tim Hightower, Darren McFadden, LaDainian Tomlinson, Jeremy Maclin or Nate Burleson there. Any of them would’ve helped shore up depth at other positions and probably convinced the Football Guys to give me a better chance at the playoffs. To follow the roster filling strategy I also took Witten earlier than I normally take TEs, which cost me shots at Wes Welker, Ben Tate, Michael Crabtree, Felix Jones, Thomas Jones and Brandon Jacobs. I felt Matt Forte was a steal in the 6th, and I’m higher on Matt Stafford than most people, but overall drafting to fill my roster left me having to rely on steals like those panning out, which is not a good position to be in.

Back to top

Mock #4

Strategy: Roster Filling

Number of Teams: 10

Draft Position: 3rd

Number of full-time autopilots: 3

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Maurice Jones-Drew (3rd)

2nd Round—Larry Fitzgerald (18)

3rd Round—Ryan Mathews (23)

4th Round—Calvin Johnson (38)

5th Round—Dallas Clark (43)

6th Round—Kevin Kolb (58)

7th Round—Donald Brown (63)

8th Round—LaDainian Tomlinson (78)

9th Round—Hakeem Nicks (83)

10th Round—T.J. Houshmandzadeh (98)

11th Round—Darren Sproles (103)

12th Round—Carson Palmer (118)

The Football Guys Analysis: The Football Guys loved this team, giving it between a 61-85% chance of making the playoffs. Naturally, they weren’t pleased with the QB position. Personally, I felt like this was one of my best drafts through four rounds. Having three autopilots helped score some great values late, like Nicks in the 9th and Houshmandzadeh in the 10th, but where the draft really fell apart, in my opinion, was in rounds 5 and 6 where I succumbed to the roster filler’s mentality and drafted a TE and QB before guys like Wes Welker, Donald Driver, Marion Barber, Cadillac Williams and Felix Jones, all of whom would have a chance at yielding a higher positive value difference than Kolb or Clark vs. their later round alternatives.

Back to top

Mock #5

Strategy: QB-WR-WR/RB

Number of Teams: 12

Draft Position: 10th

Number of full-time autopilots: 0

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Aaron Rodgers (10th)

2nd Round—Miles Austin (15)

3rd Round—Joseph Addai (34)

4th Round—Knowshon Moreno (39)

5th Round—Hakeem Nicks (58)

6th Round—Mike Sims-Walker (63)

7th Round—Austin Collie (82)

8th Round—Reggie Bush (87)

9th Round—Donald Brown (106)

10th Round—Jeremy Maclin (111)

11th Round—Mario Manningham (130)

12th Round—Dustin Keller (135)

The Football Guys Analysis: This team gets a 40-70% chance to make the playoffs, though I think that’s being a bit generous. I’d say the squad’s stacked at WR, to the point of redundancy. Having a top-notch QB like Rodgers made it possible to forgo drafting a reliable backup (because, let’s face it, barring an injury and one bye week, when would I really use him? I might as well pick someone up off waivers for that week…), so that allowed me to really stack my team deeply at WR. But Bush/Addai/Moreno/Brown, combined, do not a good RB corps make, even in PPR (though I am high on Brown this year).

Back to top

Mock #6

Strategy: QB-WR-WR/RB

Number of Teams: 10

Draft Position: 7th

Number of full-time autopilots: 6

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Drew Brees (7th)

2nd Round—Reggie Wayne (14)

3rd Round—Brandon Marshall (27)

4th Round—Knowshon Moreno (34)

5th Round—Marion Barber (47)

6th Round—Jahvid Best (54)

7th Round—Michael Crabtree (67)

8th Round—T.J. Houshmandzadeh (74)

9th Round—Montario Hardesty (87)

10th Round—Joe Flacco (94)

11th Round—Tashard Choice (107)

12th Round—Dustin Keller (114)

The Football Guys Analysis: Wow. The Football Guys completely hated on this squad, rating my playoff chances from 8-50%. That’s right. 8% with “average” in-season management. That’s not good. Obviously they don’t like ignoring fantasy’s most important position (RB) until the fourth round. Having Moreno as my best RB meant I had to reach on RBs in the next two rounds (Barber and Best). I could’ve gone Andre Johnson, Steven Jackson or Reshard Mendenhall with the #7 pick and probably been better off. Hell, I went Brees over Peyton Manning, who was drafted #12, just to shake things up. But I still could’ve landed a Manning-Wayne combo with my first two picks and gone Ryan Mathews and Moreno with my next two and ended up just fine. This is unequivocally the worst fantasy team I’ve ever drafted, either real or imaginary. And that’s saying something considering there were six full-time autopilots, taking kickers in the 8th and 9th rounds, that I could’ve taken advantage of but didn’t because I screwed myself with my early picks. The chips just didn’t fall. Even my late rounds were rife with ill-conceived disaster-picks like Joe Flacco, who I absolutely didn’t need, considering I already had Brees. Maybe I could trade him for a legit RB like Cedric Benson, as weird as that sounds to say…

Back to top

Mock #7

Strategy: WR-WR-RB

Number of Teams: 12

Draft Position: 12th

Number of full-time autopilots: 6

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Randy Moss (12th)

2nd Round—DeSean Jackson (13)

3rd Round—Jamaal Charles (36)

4th Round—Tony Romo (37)

5th Round—Clinton Portis (60)

6th Round—Pierre Garcon (61)

7th Round—Montario Hardesty (84)

8th Round—Thomas Jones (85)

9th Round—Santana Moss (108)

10th Round—Justin Forsett (109)

11th Round—Chad Henne (132)

12th Round—Zach Miller (133)

The Football Guys Analysis: This team gets a 24-60% range, so it’s not much better to draft WR-WR than it is to draft a QB first, followed by a WR. The Football Guys are extremely concerned with this team’s RB situation, and I don’t blame them. I loved Charles last year, but I’m no longer a believer, since the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones and drafted Dexter McCluster (who’s probably more of a WR, but let’s face it, they’re the Chiefs…they’re going to be throwing more than running anyway). Speaking of that, the Chiefs suck, and my RB success is wrapped up in their two main RBs, a rookie, a vet who’s got more miles on him than Chairman Mao’s first car (an ’87 Chevy Celebrity) and Justin Forsett, who has sleeper potential, but an iffy situation in Seattle. Even the WRs are suspect. Beyond Randy Moss this team is jam packed with boom or bust types in weird situations. Both Santana Moss and DeSean Jackson have new QBs and Pierre Garcon may find himself at the end of the Colts’ WR depth chart if Anthony Gonzalez heals up soon. Again, I wasn’t able to capitalize even with half the league auto-drafting from the get-go.

Back to top

Mock #8

Strategy: WR-WR-RB

Number of Teams: 10

Draft Position: 9th

Number of full-time autopilots: 8

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 0 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Andre Johnson (9th)

2nd Round—Randy Moss (12)

3rd Round—Joseph Addai (29)

4th Round—Phillip Rivers (32)

5th Round—LeSean McCoy (49)

6th Round—Wes Welker (52)

7th Round—Ben Tate (69)

8th Round—Cadillac Williams (72)

9th Round—Matt Forte (89)

10th Round—Jeremy Maclin (92)

11th Round—T.J. Houshmandzadeh (109)

12th Round—Kellen Winslow (112)

The Football Guys Analysis: They gave this team a 31-65% chance range, and I kind of disagree with them. I think my RBs are a problem, but it’s not as bad as it looks. Given that 3/4ths of the league was completely auto-drafted, I was able to score some major RB values late, including LeSean McCoy, who I love in the 5th round, Cadillac Williams (likely a serviceable starter) in the 8th round and Matt Forte, an absolute steal in the 9th. T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Jeremy Maclin are both great bargains in the 10th and 11th respectively, and Andre Johnson and Randy Moss as my WRs 1-2 are, excuse my French, unfuckwittable. As the Football Guys recommend, I’d likely find myself trading some WR depth for a viable starting RB at some point in the season. But I wouldn’t be too upset if this was my team heading into the year.

Back to top

Mock #9

Strategy: RB-RB-WR (traditional)

Number of Teams: 12

Draft Position: 5th

Number of full-time autopilots: 1

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 0 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Frank Gore (5th)

2nd Round—Ryan Mathews (20)

3rd Round—Anquan Boldin (29)

4th Round—Percy Harvin (44)

5th Round—Mike Sims-Walker (53)

6th Round—Michael Crabtree (68)

7th Round—Montario Hardesty (77)

8th Round—Darren Sproles (92)

9th Round—Jay Cutler (101)

10th Round—Justin Forsett (116)

11th Round—Dustin Keller (125)

12th Round—Chad Henne (140)

The Football Guys Analysis: They weren’t crazy about this squad, giving it a 17-55% range to make the playoffs, but it had nothing to do with my RB-RB strategy, other than the fact that I may have missed out on some guys who they perceived as WR values between pick 20 and 29. The thing is there wasn’t much to miss out on. All of the WRs from the top two tiers were drafted before 20, and the only ones I missed out on by waiting until 29 to take Boldin were Sidney Rice and Vincent Jackson, both of whom I have ranked below Boldin. My other option instead of Boldin was Marques Colston, who I also have ranked slightly below Boldin. Sometimes the players just don’t fall to you. I literally had no opportunities to draft any better WRs unless I had taken one at #5 instead of Gore, and that would’ve gone against this strategy and all conventional wisdom (plus the rules, if you remember the overview article). I’d go into the season hoping/assuming my WR corps of Boldin, Harvin, Mike Sims-Walker and Michael Crabtree would make up for my lack of a dominant WR1, and it should. QB is the real worry, but still, I would’ve given this team more than a 17-55% chance to make the playoffs.

Back to top

Mock #10

Strategy: RB-RB-WR (traditional)

Number of Teams: 10

Draft Position: 3rd

Number of full-time autopilots: 1

Roster Format: 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 QB

1st Round—Maurice Jones-Drew (3rd)

2nd Round—Ryan Grant (18)

3rd Round—Reggie Wayne (23)

4th Round—Chad Ochocinco (38)

5th Round—Steve Smith-Carolina (43)

6th Round—Clinton Portis (58)

7th Round—Dwayne Bowe (63)

8th Round—Matt Ryan (78)

9th Round—C.J. Spiller (83)

10th Round—Jeremy Maclin (98)

11th Round—Donovan McNabb (103)

12th Round—Zach Miller (118)

The Football Guys Analysis: The Football Guys loved this team, giving it a 77-90% chance of making the playoffs. I can’t say I disagree with them. Ryan Grant is still a workhorse, despite his off the charts “unsexy” factor. I also managed to get two guys who should perform like low-end #1 WRs in Wayne and Ochocinco. All in all, besides the 9th round C.J. Spiller pick, this team seems very stable and safe. One thing The Football Guys didn’t like was my QB situation, but as they constantly insist, deficiencies at that position are easy to address. Besides, despite Matt Ryan’s haters, his numbers extrapolated over 16 games last year were pretty good (3266 yards, 25 TDs and 16 INTs). His yardage, completion percentage and QB Rating would have all been down from his rookie campaign, but all-in-all, for an 8th round pick, those are solid numbers. If he can stay healthy I’d be pretty confident in this squad. But if he couldn’t, I could look to McNabb, who’s passed for 3500+ yards and 22 or more TDs in each of his last two seasons.

Back to top

Results

“BPA” Strategy (Mocks 1 and 2)

Range Average: 49-73% chance of making the playoffs

Roster Filling Strategy (Mocks 3 and 4)

Range Average: 48-78%

QB-WR-WR/RB Strategy (Mocks 5 and 6)

Range Average: 24-60%

WR-WR-RB Strategy (Mocks 7 and 8  )

Range Average: 28-63%

RB-RB-WR Traditional Strategy (Mocks 9 and 10)

Range Average: 47-73%

Conclusion: Roster filling isn’t as detrimental as I thought, as it does promote top-end balance (just not depth). The Roster filling strategy yielded the mocked teams with the highest aggregate upside. The BPA strategy is the next safest, yielding a slightly higher minimum aggregate downside and a 5% lower maximum aggregate upside. Next came the traditional RB-RB-WR strategy, which predictably yielded aggregate playoff chances that were equal to the BPA strategy but a slightly higher aggregate downside. The WR-WR-RB strategy came in fourth, producing the second-lowest aggregate upside and the second highest aggregate downside. Finally, and most predictably, drafting a QB, followed by a WR and then a WR/RB BPA yielded the shakiest results, with the lowest aggregate upside and highest aggregate downside.

You should definitely, according to this research, not draft a QB and WR before you draft a RB. Drafting two RBs back-to-back doesn’t always seem to yield more consistent strength. Also, while you can miss out value by filling your roster, you can also gain strength at starting positions.

A few more notes on where guys are going right now that I thought seemed interesting:

* You can get Calvin Johnson in the mid-to-late 30s, around the same time I’m seeing Vincent Jackson, Sidney Rice, New York Steve Smith and Anquan Boldin go off the board, and just before I saw Carolina Steve Smith come off. I feel like currently this is an incredible value for a WR who out-classes his similarly-drafted peers by a lot. Johnson is capable of a huge bounceback season this year, and there’s no reason he should be going this late.

* T.J. Houshmandzadeh is currently being drafted in the 90s-early 100s. This also seems like a stupid value. Housh disappointed last year, but has the body of work for you to take a chance on him as early as the late 60s, if you ask me (especially in PPR). Keep your eye on him.

* Matt Forte is being drafted like an RB4, usually in the 70s-90s. This seems silly. He’s still the Bears’ primary back, is capable of catching a lot of passes out of the backfield (which will make him at least somewhat useful in PPR) and seems a capable enough pass blocker to stay on the field for three downs at a time. I don’t see Chester Taylor stealing his starting job, or even full-time 3rd down duties. Forte’s younger and simply better. I think Forte will have a decent year and Taylor will steal carries only as they alternate series to save Forte from too much of a weekly beating.

* There are a multitude of similarly-valued TEs being drafted all over the board. If you can’t land Dallas Clark, Vernon Davis, Jason Witten or Antonio Gates early, fear not. Dustin Keller, Kellin Winslow and Zach Miller, who are all probably capable of only slightly worse end-year numbers, are all going in rounds 10-12.

* Remember that 15 QBs will probably finish within 100 points of each other, and your league, total, will probably only roster 12 or 13. If you get one of the big four (Manning/Brees/Schaub/Rodgers) in rounds 2-3, fine, but don’t fret if you can’t. Guys like Joe Flacco, Matt Stafford, Chad Henne, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Jay Cutler and Donovan McNabb are all being routinely drafted between rounds 7-12. And don’t forget about Big Ben Rapethlisberger at the very end of your draft. He might have his suspension reduced, and could end up being a playoff savior, if last year’s play is any indication of how good he is for fantasy in Pittsburgh’s system. And in ZERO of these mocks was Ben drafted before the 13th round (when I just logged off and let the computer draft kickers and defenses for me…).

That’s it for now. If you’re still with me, God bless you. I’ll do this again in July and see where guys are moving, and how drafts have changed.